European Central Bankers Took Center Stage Last Week
There may be potential for a reality television program starring central bankers and the making of economic policy. It could be called, ‘The Real Central Bankers of the European Economic Community.’ Just imagine the last two weeks’ episodes. Two weeks ago, the Swiss National Bank shocked markets by unpegging its currency and sending the value of the Swiss franc skyward.
Affairs last week were less unexpected. The European Central Bank (ECB) finally made up its mind and committed to a new round of quantitative easing (QE). There was no exchange of rings embedded with multi-carat precious gems, but the ECB pledged to buy 60 billion euro of assets (public debt and government bonds, primarily) every month from March 2015 through September 2016. That’s quite a leap from the 10 billion euro of assets it was already buying.
The Economist pointed out Germany’s Bundesbank wasn’t thrilled about the commitment and insisted on an agreement that would limit its risk:
“When the ECB conducts monetary policy by lending to banks, any risk of losses is, as a rule, shared between the 19 national central banks that actually execute the policy, according to “capital keys,” which reflect their countries’ economic and demographic weight in the euro area; the Bundesbank’s for example is 26 percent whereas the Bank of Italy’s is 17.5 percent… But, QE will be conducted in a quite different way… each of the 19 national central banks, which together with the ECB constitute the Eurosystem, will buy the bonds of its own government and bear any risk of losses on it.”
Sure, it’s exciting, but let’s not lose sight of the reason behind the ECB’s decision. After watching the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan engage in QE, the ECB decided it might be just the thing to reflate the Eurozone’s economy. Global markets seemed to think it’s a pretty good idea, too. Many finished the week higher.
Data as of 1/23/15 |
1-Week |
Y-T-D |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) |
1.6% |
-0.3% |
12.2% |
16.0% |
13.4% |
5.8% |
| 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) |
1.8 |
NA |
2.8 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
| Gold (per ounce) |
1.4 |
8.0 |
2.5 |
-8.2 |
3.4 |
11.7 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index |
-2.1 |
-3.1 |
-19.7 |
-11.0 |
-5.6 |
-3.7 |
| DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index |
0.9 |
7.9 |
33.9 |
17.7 |
19.4 |
9.8 |
S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
*The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* European Central Bankers
Sources:
http://fortune.com/2015/01/16/swiss-national-bank-currency/
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/01/ecb-makes-its-mind-up (or go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/01-26-15_TheEconomist-The_Launch_of_Euro-Style_QE-Footnote_2.pdf)
http://online.barrons.com/articles/ecb-and-qe-what-it-means-for-the-u-s-1422076562?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/01-26-15_Barrons-ECB_and_QE-What_It_Means_for_the_US-Footnote_3.pdf)
http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=BOL_Nav_MAR_hpp (Click on International Perspective and scroll down to Global Stock Market Recap) (or go to http://peakclassic.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/01-26-15_Barrons-Chart-Global_Stock_Market_Recap-Footnote_4.pdf
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